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RolStoppable said:

Except that what I posted is illogical.

What's more likely to happen with such three year updates is that the PS4 Neo launches, but publishers will hesitate to put much money towards it. At that point there is not much reason for consumers to upgrade, but there always people who'll buy the latest and greatest. Within two years and sales of the PS4 Neo picking up and outpacing monthly sales of the original PS4, publishers will be more willing to make use of the higher processing power, so standard PS4 versions will get worse over time as the active installed base is believed to shift in the PS4 Neo's favor. Sony themselves is also at a point where they will seriously encourage publishers to do that, because they want to phase out the original PS4 as the volume of sales for it has steadily decreased and consequently the cost benefits of massproduction won't be all that great anymore.

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Your summation on Developers suddenly in 2 years not optimizing for the current install base while the PS4.5 gains more market share I believe really does not pan out correctly.  Case in point would be games produced on the PS3/Xbox360 compared to the PS4/Xone.  There are plenty of case where both versions are developed for each platform and the older version holds up pretty well to the current because by that time, the toolsets and process flow for developing games are more mature on the older system.

 

I believe one of the big problems with a lot of opinion is that a lot of people really do not understand development of games.  The reason the Older systems still perform great while usually the new system have issue is because of developers familiarity with the devices, toolsets and resources used for developing their engines for the games are more refined and process flow better tuned for faster development.  Since the 4.5 and the original really do not have that big of a difference, there really isn't a big risk that the older system will not be tuned just as well as the faster system.  If anything, you will have developers give user the ability to turn off features for better performance or they will automatically tone them down based on the console selected.  This is still a hundred times better then how the PC ecosystem works with hundreds of different GPU and CPU options.