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DakonBlackblade on 07 April 2016
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Dark_Feanor said:
DakonBlackblade said:

Thats not how BO work. The original projections for China were 200M, after its second week it got lowered to 100-120M. It saw a colossal drop from week 1 to 2 in China (more so than it saw on the rest of the world, and the drop was massive all around). It won't make another 20M let alone 100M on China, as I said its doing lower numbers there than Zootopia wich is a movie released well before BvS. Also its doing lower numbers than Iron Men 3 everywhere (but Brazil, because reasons) since ever, it opened lower dropped faster and is still dropping faster.

This movie unlike most blockbusters opened on the same day on every market in the world so its extremely frontloaded (more so than blockbusters usualy are). It has a shot at 1 billion but thats it, its not going anywhere near IM3. Its gona make a profit for sure but no matter how you cut it the profit was heavilly influenciated by the bad reviews and word of mouth and is much lower than the studio and investors wanted it to be. WB has already shuffled its DC movies release dates around, they anounced 2 new dates and brought the WW movie foward, ppl are speculating this means they wont do JL when they originaly planed to, instead they'll have a Batman solo movie on its date and do the JL movie on one of the newer dates they anounced. In other wordsWB is listening to the critics that said they tried to cram too much into a single movie and are going to give the DCCU time to mature before throwing a bunch of heroes together again..

Movies have a long tail gross distribution over time. 

 

In the USA Block busters drop 50-60% the first few weeks then 40% then 30% then it's so low it dosent matter. 

 

Aclaimed movies can hold stronger but only few pull an Avatar kind of show. Low burners are mostly animations or well stabilished franchises like James Bond.

 

In China BvS made 40mi after the first week. I cant see that is that catastrofic. Can't it get another 50mi in the next couple of months?

 

Over seas was another 100mi week it might do more than Zootopia even with a 300mi vs 150 mi in China.

 

Batman brand is that strong WW

 It is the USA Boxoffice that should be Warner concern.

 

Youre still not following, thats definetly not how Box Office work. Here read this http://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2016/04/06/was-the-400-million-warner-bros-paid-for-batman-v-superman-a-good-investment/#5294a97b7d67. As the article clearly states (and make very obvious via an easy to follow table) BvS is a financial sucess but only a moderate one, wich is definetly not what Warner and DC wanted it to be. Also BvS dropped 69% on its second weak on the USA that is the second bigest drop of a Super Hero picture ever (only Catwoman got it worse), so no that is not normal, thats bad. 

And again, about China the movie is doing worse than Zootopia as in it grossed less in a week, Im not talking about absolute terms, Im talking about BvS week 2 x Zootopia Week 4, Zootopia beat BvS (had a better week). That is the definition of a catastrophic drop , for a movie that big be beaten by a 4 weeks old movie onits second week its realy terrible. Also China has the release of multiple Chinese movies this next couple of weeks and Hollywood movies only stay in screens there for 4 weeks, law forbids the cinemas to keep them screening for longer than that. In other words to make 200M there BvS would have to gross 110M in 2 weeks after having only grossed 90M in its first 2, that is beyond impossible. The movie has seen similar drops in other big markets and there are reports of cinemas reducing the numbers of screening already across the globe. Brazil is basicaly the one place its having a realy massive sucess, the problem is our Box Office only amounts to like 30-40M in the end. It helps but this one market alone isnt gona amount for much in the end.