NX launch line-up if or, let's be honest, when it releases this year?

[SJReiter]

Many people here are saying that there will be a new 3D Mario released at launch for NX. While I would love for this to be true, I am somewhat skeptical of this. Mainly because we haven't really heard much other than that report a couple years back that EAD was working on a new Mario game. I realize that Nintendo could ninja us again like they did with SM3DW and announce at E3/launch in November, but I'm just not sure that will happen this year.

My guess is that NX launch will have:
-Zelda Wii U port
-Smash for Wii U port
-Pikmin 4
-Some Ubisoft game (BG&E2?)
-FFXV

And that's it. Wouldn't shock me if they pushed the next 3D Mario to 2017.