I'm in the boat feeling that you truly can't tell if the 3 games truly do have the same amount of content as Awakening until you have played them all. Considering the styles birthright and conquest, it is likely the first is likely to clear that checkpoint, since they have the free roaming mechanic of Awakening and Sacred Stones, but Conquest, maybe not, since it follows more traditional FE games. Revelations I have little knowledge of due to spoilers, so I can't comment on that.
There are different ways of looking at this. If you look at each game on it's own, they are likely the same amount or maybe even more than Awakening in terms of characters, stages, and chapters. If you compare shared amount, it probably doesn't equal enough to 3 full FE games. I feel I'll be able to make a better call once I play all 3 of them, but for now, I feel I am unsure to give a sure comment yet.
Also, on the 'what if' I don't see one as being the 'true' answer, but more as a result of 'what if I went with this one choice...' sorta thing xD
Dance my pretties!
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