| Conina said: So you are saying, the ~90 million Wii owners who haven't upgraded to a Wii U haven't shifted away from Wii either? They are still happy with their Wii and are just waiting for the "right" Wii successor? So why has there been a massive software sales decline since FY3/2012 (beginning April 2011), when only 10% of that hardware base switched away?
Are most of these ~90 million people playing their old Wii games over and over and over again? If yes, that's not helping Nintendo much. If that active hardware base of ~90 million Wii users (waiting for a worthy successor) were true, they added less than 1 game on average to their Wii collection since the Wii U launch. |
Who said they're "playing their old Wii games over and over and over again"? I said that most of them haven't moved into the current generation. There are enough games available for the Wii that they won't have played, which would explain why games like Mario Kart Wii keep selling (and you seem to be forgetting the existence of used games, not to mention the fact that the numbers given by Nintendo are *shipped* games, so for titles like Mario Kart Wii, stocks have been gradually depleting). And other than that, most people who own game consoles aren't the dedicated gamers that play almost every day. Most are the ones that might pull out a game to play for a couple of hours on a weekend, or during a party. And this is true for all consoles of last gen (it may be somewhat less true of the Wii U this gen, as I could believe about 5-10 million 'core' gamers on a system). If we suppose that they have the system average of about 9.5 games per console, then they have about 9 games to choose from, and only play a couple of hours a week. They're not going to get bored that easily.
They aren't waiting for the "right" Wii successor. They just aren't that interested in upgrading at all, at least not yet. Maybe with the next generation, depending on whether something comes along to truly catch their attention the way that the Wii remote did. It's kind of like how the PS3 didn't do very well in the first few years after launch - people didn't transition over from the PS2, because they were satisfied with it, unless there was something specific to catch their attention, like the Wii remote. Meanwhile, any further taste for gaming will be satisfied by $1 games and freebies on their tablets.
Even if every single gamer in the current generation had a Wii last gen and bought only one console this gen, it would still only cover about two thirds of the Wii install base. Add in overlaps (people who own multiple current-gen consoles), and it would be less than half. Add in that quite a few won't have owned a Wii last gen at all, and you're down to maybe 25%, if you're being generous.
Nintendo tried to capture their interest with the Gamepad. But it didn't work. Amiibo has worked a bit better, and Splatoon is helping, too, but it's going to take another generation to spark anything even remotely resembling the Wii's interest. PS4 and XBO have mostly just carried over the natural upgraders, technophiles, social gamers, etc. Wii U has mostly grabbed the Nintendo fans and other fans of similar types of games. And the rest have remained with last gen, especially the Wii, and otherwise gotten their fix outside of the console gaming arena.
