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curl-6 said:

3DS will be the lowest selling Nintendo handheld, the Vita is an unmitigated disaster, and it's pretty clear at this point that Sony won't be making another handheld, while if Nintendo do, they'll only be mainstream in Japan; the West has been lost to smartphones.

I wouldn't mind being proven wrong, but honestly, I can't see a future for dedicated portables outside of Japan.

I vehemently disagree that they will only be successful in Japan. The handheld market is completely different from the mobile market. The games being made in that space are simply designed differently. The 3DS will definitely be the lowest selling Nintendo handheld, but I think the NXDS will be a much more marketable, modern product than the 3DS was.

I think the NXDS will naturally be more successful in Japan, but I think it will still be absolutely titanic in the West as well.

There really is no way of proving you wrong though than to wait and see, but I don't think people are looking at their phones and saying "I have this so I don't need a handheld." They just never wanted a handheld and the 3DS/Vita both weren't enough to convince them otherwise. I think the NXDS will be different because of the way Nintendo is reestablishing its brand this year. Not 240 million different, but I think it's going to easily overtake the 3DS and pass 100m with ease.