Poll Discussion: Top Selling Game of '08

[famousringo]

Due to the infrequency of new polls being released, it usually takes me a while to even notice that there's a new poll up. This means that quite a few votes get collected before Iget around to pitching mine in, so there's a nice sample from the VGChartz community already.

The current poll asks which game will be the biggest seller worldwide for this year. And I wanted to discuss this subject rather than just cast my ballot and move on, especially because I thought the vote distribution was a little bit silly. I'd like to mention my thoughts on the various options in order of popularity and discuss the subject in more depth.

Current results of the poll can be found here:

http://www.vgchartz.com/poll/results.php?pollid=23

The two top choices are Grand Theft Auto IV for Xbox 360 and Grand Theft Auto IV for PS3. This choice would seem natural and obvious... if the game wasn't split between these two platforms. The title has the hype and the quality to seize number one for the year, but it's split between two userbases, and neither platform looks ready to take off and drive the kind of userbase expansion necessary to give this title huge legs. It will have very nice legs, like CoD4, but the platform split takes it from probable winner to unlikely contender. I'm sure that GTA fans will feel this is a technical defeat only, and they certainly have a good case to make, but the poll wasn't set up that way.

The next choice on the list is Wii Fit. It has a massive 33% attach rate in Japan and promises to have similarly huge adoption in NA and Others. Also, its potential userbase is growing very quickly and Nintendo is pushing it with a huge marketing blitz in NA. But it also has some things counting against it. First, it was launched in December of last year in Japan, so about 750,000 sales won't count for this competition. Second, because it includes specialized hardware, Wii Fit's production is much more limited than all the disc-only titles. This is a decent contender, but I doubt that Nintendo will be able to churn out enough balance boards to make this the biggest game of '08.

Moving down the list we come to Metal Gear Solid 4. I'm baffled as to how this title got as many votes as it did. Metal Gear Solid is a great franchise and a solid seller, but it's not a blockbuster franchise and it's selling to the smallest userbase on the market. PS3 might be catching up to 360, but there's no reason to think that it could catch up by the end of this year, and if it did, GTA would probably still move more software on the platform. And finally, it's the last game out of the gate, so time is against it, too. MGS4 doesn't have a chance.

Second last place in the poll is actually my pick for the most likely winner. Super Smash Brothers Brawl launched quite early in the year, but not so early that it loses sales to '07, like Wii Fit has. It is the current front runner in terms of units sold to date, having both a massive launch and very strong legs (nearly 200,000 units sold in NA last week). Like Wii Fit, it benefits from a rapidly growing userbase, but it also appears to be a popular choice for retailer bundles, helping to drive sales even harder. And finally, this game hasn't launched in the EU yet. I'm not going to say it's a shoe-in, but SSBB has just about every advantage it can have.

Last place is Mario Kari Wii. This title is expected to track somewhat like SSBB, except it loses some advantages. It does have more casual appeal and a better online system, but it has also reviewed poorer, launched at a later date with less hype and week one sales, and the Wii Wheel makes the game slightly harder to manufacture than disc-only games. While this game isn't a front runner, it will likely sell more than MSG4.

 Okay, the work day is over. Time for me to take off and play some games. Please discuss and mention points which I've forgotten. ;)