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teigaga said:
zorg1000 said:

Like I said earlier, I made a thread a few weeks ago that shows the majority of Nintendo IP aren't directly affected by install base as much as one would think, many of their franchises sold a similar amount whether they were on a 30m, 50m, 60m, 80m, 100m or 150m install base. As long as the install base is big enough to support strong sales than Nintendo franchises mostly sell within a certain range.

One thing I need to note is that u are completely ignoring Nintendo's handheld, where their IP are still selling very well on, this thread is about Nintendo as a whole going 3rd party, not just their consoles so that's something that has to be taken into account.

Can you link me to that thread? 

Although I'm already aware with certain comparisons and do see it as meaningful, I think its very messy to extrapolate on data from generations seperated by decades, often not taking into account series popularity, game quality, userbase at time of a games release, active userbase, userbase demographic etc. I wouldn't extrapolate on SNES's (50m) audience and compare it to the PS4+Xbox One's (53m) audience, they're 23years apart and the market, the demographics and their buying habits shouldn't be seen as one just because the install numbers are similar. Nor would I compare the performance of isomentric handheld Zelda on the DS, to a fully 3D console Zelda on the Gamecube.

Heres a quick look at the first Zela game to arrive on the respective platforms and their estimated userbase at launch+12months which followed. Something I think is more useful then just looking at the systems  lifetime sales, since Zelda (like most games) is frontloaded and sells well over 50% of its lifetime total in its first 12months on the market.

Gamecube- (10m-15m) Zelda Wind Waker - 4.6m    
Wii- (0-20m) Twilight Princess - 7.3
N64- (17-28) Ocarina of Time- 7.6

Just to point out how much more balanced things are compared to comparing Gamecube22m, versus N64's 34m and Wii's 100m. Zelda Wii U will likely launch on a userbase of 14-17m, quite similar to the other first releases. If it was on PS4/X1, it would launch on a userbase of 65m-85m.

I ignored handheld because OP didn't speak about handhelds. Nintendo could produce a handheld and still go third party for home consoles.

Yeah, sure thing.

That's a huge franchise. I don't care for it, but man that is amazing. I know that comparing numbers may seem unfair due to time gaps but it is what it is. No use in getting up in a wad about it. I honestly don't like the series at all but this is a milestone in our current era.

You also bring up a great point about handhelds. But I don't see how a 3rd party company would support a different 1st party system along with their own and provide software. It seems doable but confusing and a potential disaster.