Didn't Nintendo say last year that they didn't want to reveal the NX too early out of fear that competitors will steal the new concept that the console will have? If Nintendo is being honest with this statement and if they are, in fact, revealing the NX no later than E3 2016 then it seems highly likely to me that the NX will be released in fall 2016. Why make a statement like that and then go on to reveal the NX 1.5 years before launch and give Sony and Microsoft a window to steal the new concept?
A fall 2017 NX release just doesn't make any sense to me. If the Wii U still has a whole 2 years of life left in it then why was E3 2015 so barren? Why is Nintendo still muffled about Zelda U even though the game is clearly getting very close to completion and a new trailer could have been huge hype for the holiday sales?
I also don't think that releasing the NX in 2016 is necessarily a mistake. If Nintendo has a good idea, then they shouldn't sit on it. Even if they weren't planning to reveal the new concept for the NX in 2016, the longer Nintendo waits the higher the chances are that the industry will move in a direction that is not favorable for the NX. For example, what if Nintendo had waited until 2007 to release the Nintendo DS? I'll bet that it wouldn't have sold as well as it did because 2007 was also the year the Iphone came out. It's the same for the NX: if Nintendo does have a really cool concept for the NX then they better move on it because in the tech world things change fast.
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