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JustBeingReal on 07 January 2016
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Bofferbrauer said:
JustBeingReal said:
PS4 had hit 35.9M by the end of 2015, so it's averaged 17.95M each year, without the level of huge exclusives coming in 2016. I think it will easily sell 22M this year, so I think 57.9M by the end of 2016 for that, could even hit 60M with everything slated for this year.

I think XBox One is going to take a bit of a dive with Sony having so many new AAA exclusives and just a generally more massive library of new games, particularly the big stuff like Uncharted 4, Ratchet, The Last Guardian and Horizon (I think this is very unlikely to be delayed).
For Xbox One I see it maybe at 26M by the end of 2016 and I think that's being kind, the volume of exclusives just isn't there to differentiate it from PS4.
PS4 has a much bigger and better line-up of new content, along with a generally bigger line-up of already released games. Sony has the 3rd party crowd basically locked up too.

For Wii U maybe 15M, but if NX is a new console in part and that's announced as coming in 2016 at E3 2016 then I think it could be lucky to hit 14M. I'm of the opinion that any of the Wii U exclusives will likely play on NX and Zelda in particular is going to have a better version on NX, perhaps that's even been moved to NX at this point.

Well, not exactly. Don't forget the PS4 already made several millions during it's launch in 2013 which need to be deduced. The average lies more around 15.5 millions because of this. However, it is likely that 2016 will be the PS4 peak year, considering the announced exclusives, so 20 millions or even slightly more are still possible.

Technically this Holiday just gone PS4 managed to top out it's launch period, VG Chartz has it at 29.221M, as of the end of December it had hit 35.9M, so it sold 6.679M units this holiday VS 4.480M at launch. Holiday 2014 PS4 managed 4,836,016, so it's actually ramping up, there's no reason not to do what I did in terms of working out it's average.

I doubt this year will be PS4's peak year, mainly because Sony are only just starting to hit their stride in releasing 1st party games, there's still another ND game or 2 to come this gen, there have been no Santa Monica games yet, Bend's IP is still a mystery, Sony Japan could have multiple more releases in them this generation. Japan are probably the wildcard because they're Sony's largest studio.

Other studios could certainly come out of the shadows and hit with more games per year.

Looking at games Sony have announced, that don't have release windows many of those could move into 2017 and most are the 1st of their kind this generation, multiple new IPs, from highly prolofic studios are on their way this generation, but not necessarily hitting in 2016.

We're yet to get a current gen Rockstar exclusive (I'm talking about a game that isn't coming to 7th gen consoles), those games will no doubt sell best on PS4 and move hardware in a significant way. Same goes for Final Fantasy games, particularly in Japan and the rest of asia.

There's the potential huge price cut impact that is still yet to really happen so far.

22M seems pretty likely, not really a lot to ask, especially when PS4 can sell the numbers it has been each year, without much in the way of an onslaught of big exclusive releases. This year is the beginning of that, not necessarily the biggest year for that.