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Thunderbird77 on 05 January 2016
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JWeinCom said:
Thunderbird77 said:

 

 

 


"Whatever replaces wii u won't be releasing in the "middle of a generation", it will be the start of the 9 gen and may be a little sooner than usual (if it launches 4 years after wii u). You can't say early adobters of the 8 gen will not want to upgrade. But as I said, they don't have to do so imedeately, many people still won't have upgraded their 7 gen systems."

Splitting hairs here, and that really doesn't address anything I said..  The point is they'll be launching in the middle of the PS4 and XBox One's lifecycle.  

"the 7th gen market wasn't 150m between ps3 and 360. when factoring broken consoles and double dippers, it's 130m at most. adding wii buyers and factoring triple dippers gives us around 200-210m. most of those people are potential buyers for whatever nintendo releases and the people who already own an 8 gen system may consider wii u's successor as their 9 gen system after a while."

I don't know why we would factor in tripple dippers, because they're already counted in the PS3 and XBox 360 numbers.  But this really doesn't change anything.  They're still limited to about one third of about 140 million in a scenario where they take a third of the market.  And Nintendo is not likely to get that.  People won't consider the NX a next gen console if it is similar to the PS4 and XBox One in all regards as was suggested in the original post I was replying to.

"As for power, what does it matter if "it has been two years"? it will be a minimum of 3 years when the console launches and the tech inside ps4 and x1 wasn't even new in 2013. It's totally possible and probable to have a significant upgrade over those two without a much higher bill of materials."

Really?  This is really basic stuff.  The difference between two and seven years in technology is absolutely enormous in terms of price and power.  It is neither probable to have a significant upgrade over the other two consoles in two years without being much higher in price, especially when you consider that those consoles have already dropped 50 bucks and will likely drop another 50 by the time NX is out.  It is only possible if Nintendo takes a huge loss on each console.

Bottom line is, you're not going to make a significantly more powerful console without a significantly higher cost.  The more powerful chips are not going to somehow get cheaper than the less powerful one in two years.

The generation started in 2012. minimum of for years later isn't in the middle. again with the 2 year thing? it will be 3 years minimum and bear in mind that ps360 used top hardwrae for their time while ps4 and x1 don't. the power gap tends to get even smaller in the future for all consoles.

Of course the cost will be significantly higher but sony and MS are selling their consoles at high profit margins, if nintendo breaks even or take a small loss at launch, they can get more powerfull hardware retailing for similar prices.  there's also the advantage of nintendo probably going with less hdd and better manufacturing deals to lower the costs.

Since this conversation isn't going anywhere, I'll stop here. Let's see how thing go.