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Let's go with a play out where:

- Sony and MS don't reveal slim consoles
- Where Sony don't release VR or screw up the reveal
- Where MS and Sony don't show any AAA games worth getting excited about.
- Where MS and Sony don't reveal any interesting FW updates

Nintendo will need to:

- unveil new AAA games
- Reveal a proper new console at the right price with decent specs
- Make sure the reveal isn't as bad as the WiiU one
- Reveal games for it that will be ready for launch that will be badass.

Then there is the question of what success looks like:

- Is it when Nintendo fans think Nintendo won
- Is it when the media thinks Nintendo won
- Is it when winning E3 translates to high sales

I personally think the only way Nintendo can win with both sales and E3 is by creating another Wii, whatever gimmick or new style of gaming it might involve. If the industry has positioned itself to push VR, Nintendo will find it hard to get away from their shadow.

However, if they make a console that's as powerful as the PS4 or more powerful, with a handheld that matches it (since rumours say it's a hybrid device), then Nintendo can very easily partner up with one of the VR brands. In fact Nintendo might then be the only developer with a handheld console that can do VR.

Outside of VR, I don't think Nintendo has a huge enough consumer market to make their next console a success on par with PS4 or X1.