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I expect the HW boost to be higher the MGS pack in PS3 with Dual Shock 3 will create a moderate boost above the usual SW related HW boost.

There for I expect US numbers to match GTAs launch week but expect Europe and Japans numbers to be down from GTA's launch.

This is the second "Big Sequel" to launch do not forget R and C. This is also not the first big exclusive. It is however one of the biggest games announced in E3 3 years ago. FF XIII and MGS4.