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From a manufacturer's point of view, instead of a fixed number, I believe there are 2 factors that need to be considered:

First, if the console maintains or gains market share (long term goal).

Second, if it makes a profit (short term goal).

I believe that the balance between these two factors is what determines whether a console is a failure or not. If a console gains market share and earns a profit, it is a success. I think if a console gains market share but has a net loss, or if it loses market share but turns a profit, it can still be a success, as long as the loss in market share or profit is not huge. But if a console loses market share and has a net loss, then it is a failure.

Using these metrics, I think the original XBox and the 360 were successes. The PS3 was a failure. Unless things drastically change, the WiiU will be a failure.

From a consumer point of view, a console is a success if it is fun to play.