SW:
Jap: 325k (MGS2+3 both launched closer to 500k but with much larger userbase)
NA: 675k (massive hype plus bundled with return of 80gig SKU)
Others: 600k
Total: 1.6million
HW:
Jap: 55k *Edited after original post
NA: 160k
Others: 145k
Total : 360k
In Japan apparently there are a few MGS4 bundles with different colors so I see a pretty decent boost at first but it'll crash hard I think and go back down to under 20k. As far as NA I know at first at seems ridiculous that MGS4 has more of a boost than GTA but with the bundle, especially it being a BC SKU with a DS I could see such a boost. Not sure what the longterm effect will be in the Americas though. Europe's boost I see being less since AFAIK the MGS4 bundle is a 40gb with a sixaxis.
I know my HW numbers may seem high but I'm guessing in NA especially many are waiting for the bundle since it comes with the BC SKU. SW-wise I'm guessing it'll be that high as many people who haven't played the earlier games seem to be getting in to it. The only problem is that MGS is a "unique" for the lack of a better word franchise that may not appeal to everybody. I remember a letter in GI a few months back where somebody complained that Mass Effect was too slow and not as action packed as Halo. I think there could be a similar situation here where many people expect a certain type of game and get disappointed.
