Oh patcher uses the same logic of one of my reasons why I believe that NX won't be released in 2016 but in 2017 (perhaps, on holidays)! (Mainly if it's about replacing wii u)

[Aielyn]

Even a broken (12 hour) clock is right twice a day.

Pachter is generally completely wrong. But here, he's provided a proper argument rather than asserting vague "analysis" arguments or claiming opinion as fact.

If NX launches in 2016, it'll be in handheld form only. All of the rumours involve people saying Nintendo will be launching 2016, but all of their evidence contradicts the claims. Indications seem to be that Nintendo have only barely started getting dev kits into the hands of developers - a year isn't long enough for them to make launch titles, in general. Nintendo were aiming to start production in the second quarter of 2016, and to have 20 million for launch (presumably anticipating a huge skyrocket in demand once they announce/reveal)... there's no way they'd be able to get new hardware into manufacturing and have 20 million ready in less than 6 months.

Nintendo have a well-established process. Tease two years before, then reveal one year before, then blow-out of information in the year leading up to release. It's like clockwork. They teased the Revolution in 2004, showed off the controller and spoke of possibilities in 2005, and then had the big blowout in 2006. NX was teased, in essence, this year, so next year is the reveal, and 2017 is the blowout and release.

Nintendo's Wii U lineup for 2016 is bigger than any lineup for a system set to be antiquated by the end of the same year, especially when you add titles we know exist but that haven't been announced, like Pikmin 4 (it was "very close to completion" in September). What's more, Nintendo emphasised that there are multiple third party partnerships similar to GIR#FE and Hyrule Warriors yet to be announced, none of which have been.

If Nintendo's plan was to replace Wii U with NX next year, they would have said more about NX in the last couple of months. It has been said repeatedly, since they first announced its existence, that they'd be revealing the system in 2016. If they'd already finished with the reveals of Wii U titles, they'd move on to starting the hype for NX. So there's more yet to be announced.

In short, it's unlikely that Nintendo will antiquate the Wii U in 2016. Either NX launches in 2017, or the 2016 launch of NX is a handheld.