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No, 3DS has an install base of 55m and yet there are only 3 10m+ games. You gotta remember the larger an install base gets the smaller the attach rate is likely to be. For Splatoon to sell 10m it would need to be on a console that sells as well as say the Wii did.
Looking at Nintendo's 10m+ sellers its basically just Mario and Pokemon, well then theres the Wii/DS era casual games . For Splatoon to become such a franchise it needs to find a large following in the younger generation like Mario and Pokemon did to begin with. I just dont feel Nintendo has that kind of pull anymore.