Splatoon is on a smaller userbase, yes. And it's been loosing momentum in the west while it's com to a huge attach rate in Japan, which will be limiting at some point.
Soon every third japanese Wii U owner will jhave Splatoon, if that's not already the case with digital sales.
Right now according to VGC only NSMBU, Mario Kart 8 and Wii Party U are bigger over there, but Splatoon will overtake Wii Party U very soon. So there's the biggest title from console release and Nintendos biggest online title to beat.
And that's where the market shares get interesting. If you look at SSBU or MK8, those games are actually bigger in Europe than in Japan while they're biggest in the US.
Splatoon is big in Japan, not so big in the US and decent but not great in Europe.
Keeping the current ratios Splatoon will have to get to 1.2 million in Japan for 3 million worldwide. With it's lost momentum in the west it's probably even more. That's possible though.
Five million is unlikely though with Wii U already dying a slow death saleswise. Don't expect it to be as longliving as Wii games because most retailers will through out Wii U games far earlier than they do with Wii games.
On the other hand there's Halo. Halo games got legs, no Nintendo legs nut still legs. So it will be keeping on selling until Halo 6. With a bigger and faster growing userbase. That might help sales in the long run but it should help this year as well.
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