Could it be that the franchise is simply just declining? I mean it would be natural, not everything (well basically nothing) can be as long lived as Mario or GTA.
Sonic, Mortal Kombat, NBA Jam, Street Fighter, Resident Evil, etc. all had their time in the sun as the "it" franchise of the time before they just kinda got tired. Though SF and MK have kinda been rebooted, something like NBA Jam never was properly.
It's a old franchise, 15 years old. I think really what's happening is a lot of the Halo core fanbase that played Halo 1-3 are now in their 30s, many married and with kids, and once the kids come along, say bye-bye to long gaming sessions just for daddy.
The younger set of gamers that are now in their teens/early 20s didn't grow up with the earlier Halo games, Call of Duty is their go to shooter franchise, and Halo is behind about 3-4 other IP in that range too.
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