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It is hard to tell, but it is guaranteed that MS will have at least a $50 price-drop to compete with the PS3 again, since it has been outselling it weekly (albeit only by ~10k) in the US.

I would imagine that if Sony were to do another drop it would be another $100 and probably nearer the holidays when Resistance 2 is about to hit. Price-drop and a huge FPS = winning over the US market!