Your going to get about 50 million answers, because each person has an idea of what winning is...Winning for the Wii might be sales of 30m, or 130m, who knows.
My opinion on winning is totally based on what system we're talking about.
For the Wii, I think winning is procuring a large marketshare, and keeping the Wii hardware profitable. Ultimately, Nintendo is the only true video game company, in the fact that 90% of their business comes from the sale of videogames. Nintendo wins by keeping profitable. I'd say if they can manage $250m/yr in profits every year between DS and Wii divisions, they've won. $250m a year is good no matter what kind of business your in. I'd say good # goals to "win" would be 50m h/w for the Wii (basically a major next-gen contender, and obviously very profitable), and 100m for the DS (GB-like levels of sales). This should keep Nintendo afloat for years to come.
For Sony, I would say winning (at this unfortunate stage of the game) is to make the Playstation 3 profitable at some point. I do feel that Blu-Ray will help keep the multimedia aspect of the company afloat (and I am now realizing that BR in the PS3 really did help push the format to beat HD-DVD quite a bit). Ultimately, the PS3 needs to make Sony money by 2012, by atleast making Sony around ~$50m over it's lifetime (after its massive losses for the PS3 are taken out of the equasion). It will also win by winning the format wars, as that should allow the entertainment divison (or whatever division controls BR players), to make money. 50m h/w should get them there, but barely.
For Microsoft, winning is to be (like Nintendo) profitable by 2012, on a major scale, and have themselves setup with atleast 40m h/w units sold to consumers, so when the NextBox comes out, it has a fairly large w/w fanbase, and can improve. Microsoft doesn't need the cash that the Xbox can provide, but it does need the system to start holding it's own, rather than Uncle Bill's Wallet holding the system up. Microsoft also needs some major software sales for it's 1st and 2nd party titles to start doing amazingly. Rare needs a few more 1m+ sellers. Lionhead, Bungie and Turn 10 all need major major sellers, and Bizzare needs alot too. Ultimately, if MS can make the hardware profitable, and start to churn out alot of great and profitable 1st/2nd party games, it'll nail that mark, and then they (like Nintendo) can move in for their end game in 2012-2020 and become the next Playstation 1/2's.
Back from the dead, I'm afraid.
