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Soleron said:

If the dev kits are public knowledge now, that implies 2016 launch. Did anyone publicly have PS4 dev kits in 2011?

Nope. There were apparently 3 version of the dev kits, the earliest sources I can find are of the "new" dev kits being sent out in Novemeber 2012 and the final dev kits were sent out in Jan 2013. So likely the first dev kits were sent out in late summer 2012.

For some reason people seem to be stuck on the idea that recieving a dev kit just over 1 year in advance is too late to get existing games running on it solidly by launch. Alternatively everyone is unreasonably expecting devs to be building exclusive NX games from the ground up, with development only beginning the same day they recieved the dev kits :/

I think at most we'll get 1/2 AAA third party exclusives in launch window (first 6months), likely games made in collaboration with Nintendo or games Nintendo snapped up midway through development. Any other exclusives will be party games or indie sized projects.