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In "5 years".. when emulators can handle most WiiU games probely.. they still need the WiiU gamepad.. therefor the answer is pretty simple: Less than "normal"

What I think would effect Nintendo.. was if it was the other way around..
If WiiU gets chipped like Ps1/Ps2 or totally open/hacked like DS/Wii.. WiiU sales would skyrock..