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Reason 1&2 will only have a small effect on the PS4 this month, I'm quite certain

Reason 3 I'd say won't hold true. The Halo 5 special edition console (why is that thing so expensive btw.?) is 62nd on the Amazon best seller chart already, I think Halo 5 will move a very decent amount of consoles and essentially win MS the month.

Reason 4 could actually work against the PS4, since it could make people hold of until November to buy a PS4.

Now November is an entirely different story, for that month the cards seem to very much be in Sonys favour at the moment.