I highly doubt the PS3 will get the lead this gen but I doubt too the fact that as the market extends to more casual gamers that the renewal rate for consoles will stay as short as it has been in the past.
So he's got some stuff wrong but I think the PS3 will last closer to 10 years than from 5 years...
Maybe it's just me but personally I feel the leaps from one gen to the next have been smaller and smaller and it's going to become harder and harder to convince the buyers to move a new console.
This gen the arguments were HD, Graphics, CPU.
One of those at least won't be there next gen.( HD standards won't change within 3 years)
Graphics are slowly closing to the point where making them better won't improve so much more how immersive game are.
And like many have pointed out on this site, development costs raised with this gen and developers will want more time to amortize all the new engines they have built or are building with this gen of console...
The main weakness I see in the PS3 at this point is the memory, it's going to be tough to last 10 years on 512M.
I can see Microsoft releasing their new console before that time though as I don't see them lasting 10 years on a DVD-Drive.
The question is then is Sony going to try to follow them or will they be still confident at the time in the capacity of their aging PS3 to compete with the new 720...( will it look like a Toyota Camri facing a formula one or like a BMW facing a formula one...)
PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !
PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !
