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You seem very pessimistic, I guess you shouldn't forget that Nintendo is a strong company... It has about 30 years in the videogames industry (a very big one without a doubt) and it had periods of growth and then other periods of bad sales...

Nintendo has a lot experience, as a company they did mistakes, like the Nintendo 64 or the GameCube, but then the Wii U won 7th gen. The Wii U is a mistake, but they aren't crying and they're always pushing forward providing good software.

They know they're playing with fire (I mean, with something very important) and they won't do mistakes, but however, there's a chance between 5 - 20% they fail too. (PD: I heard a lot of times people saying: we can't forget that 10% hahaha).