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In reality Mexico is just going to say "fuck you", they will never pay for a wall like this.

Trump can talk about trade deficits all he wants but the president can't just violate trade agreements like that on a whim either. They involve private industries and US companies who would have problems if the government starting meddling in trade agreements.

So that's never going to fly either.

In general I think there is the false view that governments acutally control the economy. They don't. The economy is global market that does whatever the hell it wants and there's no government or regulatory force that can "control" it. It's like saying a guy riding a bull is in control of the bull ... not a chance.