Soundwave said:
It'll drop like a rock in week 2. It won't be one of the top three selling games for the system and likely won't sell anywhere near what Nintendo would want for a game of its budget (5 year dev cycle, HD graphics, large open world) if its only on Wii U. That opening would be bigger if it was a launch title for the NX. But hurrah for lower sales I guess. |
With 10 million users on the Wii U, it could actually sustain sales for quite some time, and if the price of the Wii U gets dropped to $250-$200 who knows.
And your saying with 10 million it won't be in the top three sold games of all time, but for the NX it would, lol. Also, I don't think you'd realize exactly how much NX sales would canabalise Wii U sales. If with 10 million consoles sold we are essentially expecting (to not be one of the top three selling games) around the 3 million mark. We are guessing the NX could release at 60 percent of the Wii U userbase, which would be 6 million. If we guess how many people own a Wii U would also be an early adopter of the NX (I'm gonna low ball it and say 50%), that would leave 3 million NEW potential owners who would buy the game. Now take into consideration that only 33.3 percent of the userbase would be interested in getting the game (based on a userbase of 10 million only 3 million are going to get the LoZ) and we see the sales potential is around 1 million more games sold to new potential buyers, if we put a LOT of trust that 50% of owners will be new. Sounds pretty good....
Until you realise in order to do that they will be needing to sacrifice a machine powerful enough to get multiplats without a little effort from third parties (and we know how that is going to go) pretty much resulting in a complete loss of third parties in the second year (sound familiar?), gutting any potential for sales for the Wii U by releasing a AAA game that does generate hype, gutting the potential for sales for the game ON Wii U (if it releases on the NX, no one who has an NX is going to get the Wii U version), making sales potential of a price cut pretty much useless.
Also, we got to take into account the reality that chances are 75% or higher of the day 1 NX owners are going to be previous Wii U owners (the fans of Nintendo). That being the case, we can really only look at around 750 thousand copies sold to new owners at bestm ~500 thousand worst...
Just because some petty kid on the internet wants to hoot and holler that Nintendo needs to release the NX and end the Wii U as soon as possible does not make it a good financial decision.
