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In my opinion it will be very difficult, but as you said before, if Nintendo makes a pricecut, the probability will be a little more bigger.

The software they will launch in the future will be important too. Xenoblade Chronicles X, Star Fox Zero, Pokken Tournament, the next Zelda for 2016 could be decisive. But I don't think the Wii U will achieve 20 million sales worlwide... Perhaps more than 15, but 20 is quite difficult.