Michael Pachter says Wii U to sell 20 million units worldwide

[Mummelmann]

fleischr said:

Mummelmann said:

You think the Wii U will sell more than 20 million lifetime? If so, what will drive these sales? It will have to essentially double its installed base before exiting the market, and interest isn't exactly expected to increase in the coming years and it likely peaked last year. Market leaders may go on to sell decently once new hardware has released but distant 3rd tends to flicker and disappear fairly quickly.

There really aren't a lot of arguments left for 20 million or more right now.

Say the WiiU gets a really aggressive pricecut - goes under $200 - 250 with bundled games

Then let's say new NX home console  gets pushed out to late 2017, maybe even into 2018.

To get to 20 million, the WiiU needs a pricecut and it needs to exist at retail into 2017/2018. Neither one of those things are really out the question.

So lets say WiiU has a really good holiday and hits 13 million by 2016. 2016 having a pricecut in effect with a bunch of solid games at retail makes it sell another 4 million that year. Then between 2017 and 2018 when the NX console arrives, another 3 million are sold. 20 million.

Not impossible, but very unlikely.

1: I have no faith in price cuts when the product itself has shown a great lack of appeal.

2: There is no reason to delay the NX till 2017 with the current state of things, let alone 2018, that would be trademark suicide.

3: Even if a price cut and retail presence until 2017 or 2018 and they somehow manage a few decent titles in 2016; that doesn't mean much will happen in terms of sales. They've thrown every big title they have at it and it has been the cheapest 8th gen console all along, to no avail.

Like I said; not impossible but very unlikely. It depends on a lot of things, of course, but the way I see it, there is a much greater chance of it not reaching 20 million sold than reaching it.