Shadow1980 said:
Earlier in the thread we were talking about the XBO's potential sales in October. Well, let's take a look at this chart:
* CHARTZ *
In 2007, the 360 received a price cut on August 8, which boosted sales to 276.7k, up from 170k in July, a nearly 63% increase. Halo 3 was released September 25. The combination of the price cut boosted September sales to about 528k. To see what additional effect Halo 3 gave, we need to look at per-week averages. The 360 had per-week averages of 69,250 for August and 105,600 for September. That's a 52.5% increase, which is pretty significant, especially considering that Halo 3 only counted for 12 days of the 35-day period for September NPD.
So, what can this tell us about October? Well, first off October is a 4-week month, which works against it. Also, Halo 5 launches on Oct. 27, and IINM the October period for NPD runs from Oct. 4 to Oct. 31, which gives us only five days of sales to Halo 3's twelve. However, the XBO is also getting a limited edition Halo 5-themed bundle, which as we saw was being pre-ordered at quite a brisk pace. Also, these big game launches tend to be quite front-loaded. If VGC's software data is to be believed, Halo 3 sold 2.42M copies in the U.S. in its first five days, and that may be undertracked as according to NPD Halo 3 sold 3.3M in those first 12 days, while VGC had it at only 2.92M. Also, an MS rep claimed that Halo 3 generated $170M in revenue in its first 24 hours, which gives us an upper limit of 2.83M (though the existence of the Legendary Edition means it was definitely at least somewhat less than this). Halo 3's effect on sales were likely extremely reduced in its second week. So, Halo 5 may have a similar impact on sales despite being on the market for five days instead of twelve.
So, how has the XBO been doing compared to the 360:
* CHARTZ *
We're seeing slightly elevated sales overall; January was kinda weak, but June was inexplicably huge (71% increase in per-week average from May; E3 effect and Batman, maybe?), so it kinda evens out. Anyway, without any huge system-sellers or a price cut, August and September aren't going to be as big as the 360's second August & September. Typically, without anything to boost sales, July and August tend to be very close and September about 25% higher than the two of them, so we might be looking at around 200k-ish for August and 250k-ish for September. So, let's just say that the XBO maintains an approximate per-week average of 50k through until the week before Halo 5 week. That gives us a base of 200k for October. Add in a comparable boost to the per-week average like what Halo 3 yielded, and we might see a minimum of 300k. However, special edition bundles may provide an addition boost.
So, after taking into account the likely absence of another price cut before November and the fact that October is a four-week month, I'm revising my previous estimate down to 350-400k. Here's the projections for August through October added to the previous graph:
* CHARTZ *
Of course, Sony will likely issue a price cut sometime between late September (TGS) and the end of October (Paris Games Week), and there's no telling what effect the boost to PS4 sales could be on XBO sales. Halo is still pretty big and has a dedicated fan base, and there's probably been plenty who have held off on buying an XBO until Halo 5 comes out, so a $350 or even $300 PS4 might not be enough to dissuade anyone who might be getting an XBO for Halo, though it will definitely influence the general game consumers.
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June was a very good month for XBO because some insane deal, for example, if you sold your 360 / PS3 you can buy a XBO for only 175$ and other thing like this.
That's why is increase so much in June. And that's also what's happen in April, indeed, the XBO with the same promotion has sold 187k in April ( 46,750 weekly basis ) compared to the 233k from March ( 46,600 weekly basis ), and even if the weekly basis was basically flat, is still a strong result, because looking the history of sales: March >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> April
In May XBO didn't have those promotion, indeed even with The Twitcher marketing is dropped by a decent margin, more than 25%, usually May is a worse month than April, but not so worse than dropped so much, for example, the PS4 in that month is dropped by only 13%... Then, another insane promotion in June + 1TB model + E3 , has increase the XBO sales by a huge margin...
For talk about nexts months, well, August has Rare Replay, Gears Ultimate with the bundle, and Madden 16 with the bundle and the marketing VS September with Metal Gear Solid V and Destiny TTK, both with PlayStation marketing.
In term of line up, August seem a better month for the Bone, but i believe that in weekly sales will still do a bit better in September because is generally a bigger month... So, here we ho:
August: 210k ( 52,500 weekly basis )
September: 275k ( 55,000 weekly basis )
For October your prediction seem good, as i said, i personally predict 400k for XBO.
