I know you're apparently the numbers guy, so is the above gap correct? Seems right. If so, I think the gap this year will be a tad smaller going into November.
However, I think Sony will be more aggressive. I see no price cuts this holiday, but I do see Black Friday promotions, with bundled games and temp price cuts. Sony won't do a price cut for 6-8 weeks like MS did last holiday, maybe one for BF/Cyber Monday weekend and one for Xmas week.
The numbers are correct.
In answer to your second question, I posted the below on GAF last month and will post here as well.
This year I believe we'll see the Xbox One stay at the $349 price point as an RRP for the holiday season. Microsoft have already dropped the price $150 since launch and whilst it's helped them in the USA during the holiday season, it hasn't much helped them in the US in 2015 or worldwide..... since forever.
I don't think Microsoft will be looking to de-value the console even more, and I don't think they're prepared to have another holiday season where they lose money thanks to another price cut. Microsoft know they have some fairly big hitters like Halo 5 coming out this year and so I am of the opinion that Microsoft will not drop the price (outside of special one off/retailer specific deals) this calendar year. The official price will remain $349.
What I believe Microsoft will do is in a similar fashion to their strategy during 2009 with the Xbox 360. If you remember, Microsoft kept the price the same but bundled in two games at retail. This year I believe we'll see Microsoft start to add value to their proposition by creating more bundles aimed around the $349 and $399 price points with games and perhaps even Xbox Live bundled in at no extra cost to the user.
I made a similar post before about the PlayStation 4 but will now expand. During the PlayStation 2 era Sony had a strategy that was all about being the market leader to show that the PS2 was continuing on from the success of PS1 and that video games were serious business. The PlayStation 2 launched at a low price of $299 and Sony's strategy was to subsidise the console in favour of making bank on software. What this meant was that Sony were more willing to drop the price $100 in May 2002 in order to increase the install base at the detriment of hardware revenue as they knew software revenue would make up the difference.
The gaming landscape has changed recently and from the evidence at hand we can see that the majority of the console gaming market is being driven by early adoptors, hardcore gamers and core gamers. Sony are taking advantage of this with their new strategy, first they got everything right about the console, then they priced it lower than their competitor at a good entry price, third they've been the cumulative leader this gen.
What that means is that Sony's strategy is very much about making a profit both on hardware and software which is very different compared to the PS2 strategy of the time. This is the longest Sony have ever gone without a price drop and that's because the console is still selling very well. They could have done this strategy with the PS2 and it would have done well but with PS2 they were more than happy to sacrifice hardware revenue for a higher install base. With PS4, Sony would prefer to increase hardware revenue, and it's clear that they can with PS4.
We rarely see consoles go this long without a price cut and the only others I can think of that have gone this long were the Wii and Wii U but they are special circumstance really. When it comes to a PS4 price cut I am of the opinion that a price cut must and will take place before the Morpheus launch. Sony will also need to weigh up their options as to whether that price cut will take place before Morpheus launch in 2016 or if they are willing to cut the price in 2015 because it is a hit they can take/have planned for or even will still remain profitable.
This year I am of the opinion that we will see a price cut in order for Sony to open the console up to a new audience and to increase the install base. However I am not sure if it will be a $50 or $100 price cut and whether it will even be temporary during the holiday or permanent. However, Sony do not need to cut the price either and I can very much see them holding back this year and taking the same strategy I mentioned above of Microsoft in 2009. Bundle the crap out of PS4 at the same $399 price point and we are already seeing that with the Destiny bundle.
So Sony really can go both ways here and to be honest they probably don't need to drop the price as the PS4 is doing just fine, however I do think it's time and we will see some sort of price drop this year, at the very least we'll see loads of bundles at $399 with extra value adds.