Will GTA IV outsell previous GTA's?

[Bodhesatva]

koffieboon said:

Munkeh111 said:

koffieboon said:

mrstickball said:
It'll easily outsell the 3 totals you listed. GTAIV is looking to have around a 4-5m first week. That's pretty huge, no? Considering the legs every other GTA has had, I would assume that it could wind up with a 3-4x multiplier from the first week: certainly enough to outsell what you listed.

Considering GTA IV seems to have a lot bigger opening it is far from certain it will have similar legs.

Why? There are stock issues in many places, and with rapidly growing install bases, there is going to be a much larger PS360 total install base by the end of the year, and most of those are going to want to play GTA IV, simply because it is the best game of all time (according to gamerankings and metacritic) so if anything, it will have more legs.

Because the trend is completely different at the start, it really isn't that logical to automatically assume the rest will behave like earlier versions did. Also there are some significant differences between San Andreas and GTA IV.

- GTA IV is the first GTA on the current generation consoles, making it more likely to be front loaded.

- San Andreas was launched at the end of October, so a completely different time of the year. I can see many people waiting to pick it up immediately because it could be used as a present during the holiday season.

- The userbase is a lot different. Many of the current owners will be avid gamers and more likely to pick up the game at launch

- Console prices are a lot higher at the moment than PS2 was during the launch of San Andreas, at least in the US (In Europe the Arcade 360 is a lot closer). Many people might have picked up a console to play the game at a price of under $ 200, but at the current prices the barrier to entry is higher. And by the time console prices come down there might be a new version of GTA out already.

 One could argue that it's not completely different. It's the same thing as it always was -- just even bigger, and even more popular. That's possible.

Realistically, though, games like this tend to get more fervent and fervent admirers, and stop growing over time. So that means larger launches, shorter legs. Historically, this is more likely, but definitely isn't a certainty.