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Ryng on 17 July 2015
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Aerys said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
Aerys said:


Except that US is not the center of the world, PS4 is doing much better in Europe and the rest of the world, and being first console in US, it will do more than PS3 without a doubt ( PS3 never got COD bundles) since it's already ahead by a considerable amount even there . Unless you think no console will hit 45M this generation while both did last generation ? 

Exatly. PS4 will never break the Wii or 360 numbers in the US. It will sell more than the PS3, but not at Wii360 level. (in the US)

And what X1 numbers do you expect then ?


That's a thing to say it wont break WII/360 numbers even if it could, that's an other to say it wont break PS3 numbers, it's kinda obvious it will by a good amount , consoles are sold by marketing deals mostly, in one year, PS4 has much more sgnificant marketing deals than PS3 ever had. Or you forgot that PS4 is already 3,5M ahead of PS3 in the same time frame ? And the gap will greatly increase this year with all these marketing bundles, PS4 will win by a considerable margin the last 4 months, increasing the gap by 1,2-1,3M at least, so the gap will already be close to 5M.

PS4 would be really unlucky to not reach 40M at the very least in US, it's pretty much a given at this point, especially when you know 2016 will be 2 times bigger than 2015 in terme of big releases.

 

So 100M should be really easy to reach , +10M in US at least, + 10M in Europe ( already tracking 5M ahead of PS3 in the same time frame), and i dont even count the rest of the world . So saying it wont be easy to reach 110M ? Maybe, but 100M will be a joke for PS4

XBO will end at 20-25m, and i expect PS4 at 30-35m.

40m is too much, that's why:

1) Wii sold 42m. Wii has sold 20 million only in 2 years ( 2008: 10.2m, 2009: 9.6m ). The Wii was selling for >400k all NPD in 2008, with some month at 600-700k, and nearly 4 million only in December 2009... ( best NPD ever )

2) The X360 has sold 43m. X360 has sold with some of the stronger legs ever, it sold discrete the firsts years, and like a monster since 2010, in 2011 the 360 has sold nearly 7.3 million... For a comparation, the PS2 peak is 8.6 million. And this 1 million difference was because the stronger December, in the other month, the 360 was seriusly close with PS2... In short, the 360 has sold with strong legs, and in some year at beasting level, beasting level that currently crushing PS4.

For example, even with the super strong Batman bundle, PS4 is not even close with the June 2011 of the 360, which was over 500k.

 

In short. That's why i don't think PS4 will sell 40m. It must sell at Wii level ( super megaton momentum ) or like 360 ( super legs and super sales ).

In both case, is unlucky. We all know this gen will be shorter than last gen, that's why PS4 will not have the 360-PS3 legs, and of course, will never sell over 10 million in a year like the Wii.

Wii was selling for 500-700k in a normal NPD in 2008, and 360 300-500k in a normal NPD of 2011... I can't see PS4 to sell over 300k all month even withouth games.