| misterd said: So... 2.4 million for 6 months... that's 14.4 million more. Add in roughly 2 million more for May, and that's an additional 16 million for 2008, bringing the approximate total to 41 million by the end of the year -more perhaps if there has been some stockpiling for the korea and china launches and for the holiday season. |
If we use an extension of my production/shipment table. without any airshipping they should be able to get 42 million shipped by the end of the year minimum (with it it could be over 43)
and that is using an immediate 1.8 to 2.4 million increase for July, wheras it might be more of a gradual process between now and July (3 months with more than 1.8 million production but less than 2.4) if so we could add another 800-1000k on top of either of those numbers.
so the shipped figure we should see for the end of December will be at least 42 million, and possibly as high as 44 million.
(the steps to increase to 2.4 may also have started before April, so we could add even more if true, though not likely to be more than 200k extra)
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oh yeah here is the table (it uses an estimate of 5-6 weeks between "produced" and "shipped" consoles [the time it takes from factory to America/Europe], which means to find the shipped number you generally need to look 1.5 cells up into the cumulative production, of course this changes for stockpiling or air shipping)
| Month | Cumulative Production | Monthly Production | Shipments |
| start | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| Nov | 3.0 | 1.0 | |
| Dec | 4.0 | 1.0 | 3.19 |
| Jan | 5.0 | 1.0 | |
| Feb | 6.0 | 1.0 | |
| Mar | 7.2 | 1.2 | 5.84 |
| Apr | 8.4 | 1.2 | |
| May | 9.9 | 1.5 | |
| Jun | 11.4 | 1.5 | 9.27 |
| Jul | 12.9 | 1.5 | |
| Aug | 14.7 | 1.8 | |
| Sep | 16.5 | 1.8 | 13.17 |
| Oct | 18.3 | 1.8 | |
| Nov | 20.1 | 1.8 | |
| Dec | 21.9 | 1.8 | 20.13 |
| Jan | 23.7 | 1.8 | |
| Feb | 25.5 | 1.8 | |
| Mar | 27.3 | 1.8 | 24.45 |
Apr | 29.1 | 1.8 | |
| May | 30.9 | 1.8 | |
| Jun | 32.7 | 1.8 | est 30.2 |
| Jul | 35.1 | 2.4 | |
| Aug | 37.5 | 2.4 | |
| Sep | 39.9 | 2.4 | est 35.8 |
| Oct | 40.3 | 2.4 | |
| Nov | 42.7 | 2.4 | |
| Dec | 45.1 | 2.4 | est 43.0 |
My estimates are based on similar happenings to last year, where there was some stockpiling making the september shipment smaler (would be half-way between 35.1 and 37.5 without it) and some air shipping in the last quarter meaning some produced in late Nov/Dec make it to stores before January (which they wouldn't using normal shipping)
