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Honestly the only incentive existing PS3 owners are waiting for is more games that they care about, a cheaper price helps as well.

They've already got COD locked and I doubt they'd go through the holiday without a temporary price cut. In the UK they've already done it for certain releases. So I don't anything you've suggested is daring or unlikely

This year should be the PS3's last holiday outside of Japan. Beyond 2015 I think the only game the system will receive is Fifa.