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Boutros said:

Actually VGC is overtracking Skyward Sword. It was at like 3.7 million as of March 2015.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=963700

Skyward Sword was super frontloaded. It really didn't do much after those first couple of months and that 3.5 million was shipped so that shipment lasted for a few more months.

So it seems to me like 4 million is a good objective for Zelda Wii U.

Where does that 3.7m Skyward Sword number come from? It says 'Nintendo', but where exactly? Nintendo never gave any official numbers on the game after 2011 as far as I know, they're nowhere to be found in any case. I doubt it was so unbelievably front-loaded that 3.5m people rushed out to buy the first month and then only 200k more did the following 4 years (!). More importantly that list also implies A Link Between Worlds didn't sell a single copy last year because there it's still at 2.51m. Where Nintendo said it was march 2014 so that prooves the list wrong right there.

I think those numbers for a lot of those games aren't really up to 'march 2015', rather they are the 'last known sales' up to march 2015. Skyward is over 4m, ALBW is at 3m most likely.

OT: Yeah, I think it will sell over 4m. It'll be the first original Zelda game on the system so it will be a system seller. It also seems that it's recieved favorably and it looks like it'll be the first 'traditional' Zelda in a long time. Sales of the series have been inconsistant and it doesn't seem to be affected much by installed base of a console. Obviously Zelda U won't sell like OoT or TP on WiiU due to it's low base but at least there seems to be a certain minimum. Wind Waker wasn't well recieved by the general public when it released in a time when GC was laughed at just as much as WiiU is now and it still sold 4.6m copies. With Zelda U being a more wanted game and if the WiiU reaches the mostly agreed upon here on VGC 18m hardware sales, the game could end up with 5m sold, certainly over 4m I'd say.