@naznatips: I think you are too conservative and you don't really look on the numbers we already have.
In UK and US first day sales are at 3.1 million. I think it can be rational to assume it is over 4 million including mainland Europe (UK is 1/3 of X360 and less than 1/4 PS3 Others userbase so even assuming that GTA4 won't appeal there as good as in UK 0.9 milion is still pesimistic).
Your prediction of 4.5-5.0 million first month will be surpassed first week (and maybe even reached first day). I know it sound ridiculus but I can see this game selling over 7 milion on its first week, (Halo 3 sold in first week 75% more than it sold in first day and GTA4 has more time this week than Halo 3 had).
You are saying that Halo 3 isn't selling that good but GTA4 is bigger, Halo 3 sold 3.8 mln on first week, GTA4 will beat that number on first day. In UK only X360 version sold 20% better than Halo 3. And PS3 version also surpassed Haloo 3 first day.
You think that userbase is that big of a problem? Halo 3 was released on less than 12 milion userbase and by now have sold 7.6 milion units.
GTA4 was released on more than 30 milion userbase so it can surpass Halo 3 significantly if it will be able to obtain similar attach ratio. And I really think that GTA4 will have bigger legs than Halo 3.
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