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Soundwave on 23 June 2015
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zorg1000 said:
Soundwave said:


Fundamentally we have no idea. Nintendo could also take their time in the past as they had at least one good selling system at the time of all those previous announcements. 

People don't realize how low Nintendo's 3DS sales are sinking. At a target of only 9 million 3DS' for this fiscal year (one they are very likely to miss), Nintendo is looking at the lowest handheld shipment they've had in like 20 years. And the Wii U is selling very poorly, obviously as well. 

Also the handheld time line for reveal to launch is much tighter. 

DS was unveiled at E3 2004 and launched six months later. 3DS was announced in March 2010, and was released less than a year later (Feb 2011 in Japan). 

So these things are obviously subject to the situation. 

It could also be that Wii U/3DS sales are so weak right now they could have shown a hardware tease for NX at this past E3 but opted not to to preserve whatever holiday sales this year that they can. 


Actually the 3DS forcast is 7.6 million


Oops, yeah was looking at the previous year forecast. Yeah ... that's really ... really low. I'm not sure if they'll even hit that, but if they do it will be Nintendo's lowest handheld shipment for a year since 1996. Basically you have to go back to before the creation of Pokemon to get a number that low. 

So likely right now we are looking at the lowest period for Nintendo hardware sales since they started making both a handheld + console (1989). 

As such I think there is considerable more motivation to end this generation, which has been all kinds of terrible for Nintendo, and start fresh. 

They simply can't go several years with handheld shipments in the 5-7 million range, and console shipments hovering around 3 million. That will really kill Nintendo's ability to hit their financial targets.