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We all know Nintendo is attracting casuals. If not for casuals, they would be in last place as hardcore, mature gamers preffer ps360. However after a few years a lot of casuals become hardcore players themselves.
This is the gateway in to gaming for a lot of people...but withing 2-3 years they will be on to MMORGP's and online FPS games.

So I don't see the next wii carrying over much of the fanbase this wii creates.

Hence I disagree.