Let's give people some credit. They can figure out what Wii Fit is good for, and decide if they're interested in it or not all by themselves.
If most people think Wii Fit is a silver bullet, and it isn't, then it won't have a very long shelf life. They'll be nothing but disappointed customers and bad WOM. But of course, it isn't being pitched as a silver bullet.
Wii Fit is more like the "Curves" gyms than the Hawaii Chair (Youtube it (seriously)). Like Curves, it looks to remove barriers like price, discomfort, inconvenience and lack of incentive for current non-consumers of fitness products or services. The Hawaii Chair pretends to be a silver bullet so that it can have a flash of sales before becoming a joke.
Of course it won't be "better" than a gym by traditional measures. Has no one been paying attention to Nintendo's strategy for the past 4 years? Just apply it to the fitness market instead of the gaming market. Its the same freakin' thing.
And not only will it have long term success, disproving the "stupid people" explanation, fitness software will be able to move upwards through more demanding types of fitness. Any fitness equipment could be used in cunjunction with software and motion/balance/weight sensors, and someday it probably will be. It will slowly become more sophisticated to where it can help regulate a good routine, not merely incentivize.
I'm guessing a dumbbell shell game and maybe an "open world jogger" will be some of the first third-party fitness games for Wii.
"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."
Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.
