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I never cared about CoD since Modern Warfare in 2007, even less so on consoles and those other titles aren't coming out for some time. Still don't see a reason for me to buy a PS4 for some time.
Uncharted 4 alone won't do it for me.
I almost got my hands on one at 50%, which was a good deal, but they had run out by the time I got to the store. I won't be getting one until it's at least 100$ cheaper and has a library of games I actually want.
I can honestly say that it doesn't have a single must-have title for me yet (besides The Witcher 3, but that's a PC game for me).

But, yes; PS3 sales will keep falling, 5-10k might be a slight stretch by the end of the fiscal year though. I can certainly see 10-12k though, especially if the PS4 has a very good holiday season.