The NX will be Nintendo's Dreamcast

[Burek]

padib said:

Burek said:

I agree with the OP. I think Nintendo will continue to shun 3rd party AAA developers, and will pay the price.
We already see Nintendo fans upset because of lack of future vision for WiiU, and I doubt that NX will be able to attract anybody outside the existing fanbase. If those current fans start jumping ship, there will be very few people left willing to take a gamble with NX.
I see Nintendo in 2018 as a 3rd party software developer, with a strong focus on mobile (like most Japanese developers today), and a strong complementary toy business.

What do you do with all the people that bought their handhelds steadily  every generation? What do you do with the potential audience Nintendo lost from Wii to WiiU. Did they just disappear?

Yes, people that bought a Wii disappeared. Most of them never had much interest in gaming anyway, and if they are gaming now it's by swiping or tilting their mobile device. People who bought handhelds steadily are declining even more steadily, with Nintendo basically having such luck to be able to sell small updated devices to the same people every few years. The next handheld will do even worse than 3DS (if 3DS did 50% of DS, next one will do 50% of 3DS numbers at most).

Without 3rd party hit games, Nintendo has no chance in appealing to a broader base. We already see that 10 million is the best case scenario for home consoles (number of Nintendo fans willing to play only those games), and by giving up support barely 3 years into the generation, Nintendo is certainly not making new fans any time soon. To think that those 10 million people will be willing to buy the next console so that they can be sold Mario, Zelda and Smash again is not realistic.

Nintendo has steadily refused to move into the 21st century, and that is the reason they are being left behind in the modern gaming environment.