I agree with the OP. I think Nintendo will continue to shun 3rd party AAA developers, and will pay the price.
We already see Nintendo fans upset because of lack of future vision for WiiU, and I doubt that NX will be able to attract anybody outside the existing fanbase. If those current fans start jumping ship, there will be very few people left willing to take a gamble with NX.
I see Nintendo in 2018 as a 3rd party software developer, with a strong focus on mobile (like most Japanese developers today), and a strong complementary toy business.







