johnlucas said:
DonFerrari said:
Marvelous story and quite interesting narrative (not all is factual, but I liked it)... but even like that it wouldn't explain 1000-2500% boost in sales... NES had the unity and it didn´t even passed 100M. PS2 curve stomped all and didn't passed 200M... how in the name of the lord is 240M possible??? It's like MS PR saying this gen was a 1B consoles one.
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Simple.
In 10 years time (9 for the PS3), the XBox 360 & PlayStation 3 have sold about 85 million units a piece.
85 million + 85 million = 170 million
Add Nintendo's numbers when they have all the support & how hard do you think it will be to get to 240 million?
One of the biggest obstacles for some gamers to support Nintendo is the lack of 3rd party support.
But if that's no longer a factor then they absorb ALL of the XBox & PlayStation audiences adding it to their own.
It's only a 70 million difference between 170 million & 240 million.
Neither Sony nor Microsoft can sell their platform by themselves. None of their 1st party efforts can hold down their platforms enough.
They are BUILT for the 3rd party to carry them.
When AAA 3rd Party Console Market crashes, it will take the XBox & PlayStation down with it.
But every 3rd Party is not willing to fall into the abyss & they will swallow their pride & began to share their franchises with Nintendo out of necessity.
The people who work in these companies have mortgages to pay off, college funds to replenish, families to feed.
Their pride will take a backseat to the need to survive.
And before you mention PC or Mobile AKA the NEW PC, let me remind you of this.
Many of these 3rd parties have already LEFT the PC. That's why they're making console games in the first place.
The money isn't there in PC like it is in consoles.
Why would a PC game company like Crytek even consider bringing their games to XBox 360 & PlayStation 3 if PC was so lucrative?
Grand Theft Auto V comes out on PC 2 years LATER than it did on PS3 & 360.
While Grand Theft Auto I came out on PC 2 months BEFORE it came out on PS1.
Why the switch from a franchise that was born on the PC?
As for mobile, if mobile was the key why aren't they there now?
Why would they even bother with consoles when there are WAY more tablets/smartphones in the world?
A few hundred million consoles in the world versus about 2 billion smartphones. It's no comparison.
Why don't we see Madden NFL or FIFA on the iStore? Why isn't Grand Theft Auto V & Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare on Google Play?
Why do these 3rd party companies only dip their toe into mobile instead of going all in?
The reason you don't see it is because they wouldn't get the return on their investments.
Adding all mobile revenues together might show you $20 billion to $30 billion but when you recognize that these revenues come from only 1% to 2% of all mobile users, it doesn't make it look like a stable market. Most people on mobile don't spend a dime.
It's simply the sheer volume of smartphone/tablet adoption that give that 1% to 2% such impact.
I don't think EA wants to sell Madden NFL & FIFA for $1 & try to build their revenues that way.
I don't think Rockstar or Activision would be happy selling GTA V & COD under the freemium model.
No. Consoles are the stable business.
And the reason why consoles are the stable business is because of the one who ensures that the videogame console still exists: Nintendo.
That's why their evolutions & changes in controller design, game design, & business structure are mimicked.
That's why I call them the Lifesource that everyone draws from.
When the bottom falls out, Nintendo will be the last man standing.
Nintendo will be the island in the flood. Nintendo will be the oasis in the desert.
And to keep from drowning in the sea, the 3rd parties will come ashore that island.
To keep from being buried in desert sands, the 3rd parties will bathe in that oasis.
The Rebellion will take a backseat to Survival because they have mortgages & college funds, & families to feed & fund.
Their Pride will take a backseat to their Humility.
Once this equation comes to pass—1st Party + 2nd Party + 3rd Party = Nintendo's Party—Wii U will have those numbers.
Gamers go where their favorite games go. They might complain & gripe about picking up a Nintendo controller but they will get used to it.
They'll have to if they want to play their favorite games.
John Lucas
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