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tbone51 said:
binary solo said:
So with USA retail thrown in it's looking like nudging 600K FW with Digital included. ~500K FW retail only?

UK+FR=~46% of WIi U Europe install base --> ~100K for Europe over all.

Rest of World = <10% of Wii U install base ~ FR+UK install base => 40-50K sales.

So Japan FW +EU probable FW + RoW probable FW = ~300K retail sales. US~ 42.5% of the global install base => 230K FW for USA, but USA might like Splatoon more than Europe, so USE could get up to 300K FW.


I think 300k FW is alot for US. I do think NoA will be alot bigger than Europe, if i had to guess it be this for now. (about)

Retail Only          Digital

Japan: 145k         45k    (japan Out of stock, hence digital is high and already proved to be 40k+)

NoA: 170k            25k

Europe: 95k          15k  (Discount with Demo)

RoW:   30k              5k

WW Total: 440k +  90k   [Total 530k]

 

Shipments Probably around 540k-600k FW.

OK 300K for USA might be a bit ambitious, but I reckon you're lowballing NA there a bit with only 170K. Only 25K more than Japan with close the double the install base. It is probably right that proportionally Japan will like this game more than NA, but I don't think it will be that disproportionate. The attach rate for Japan FW, retail only, is ~6.5%. 170K means a NA attach rate of about 4%. I would think an attach rate of more like 5% compared to Japans 6.5% would be more like it, so 200K should be a lock for NA. I'm still going to go with about 500K FW retail. If RoW contributes only 30K then that would be a very poor showing for a close to 1 million install base.



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