Will XBox 360 reach 50 million?

[Slimebeast]

crumas2 said:

Slimebeast said:
Yes.

Starcraft has a point about MS wanting to stretch the lifetime of a profitable X360.

There will be 6 years between the PS3 and PS4 (which will be released Oct 2012), therefor the Xbox 3 won't have to launch until Oct 2011 and still be one year ahead of PS4.

This gives us roughly these sales for X360:
LTD 1/1 2008: 16 mill
2008: 9 mill (effectively the peak year)
2009: 9 mill (same sales as peak year thanks to low price and a new Halo)
2010: 8 mill
2011: 6 mill (much lower sales in anticipation for the Xbox3)
2012: 2 mill (after all, Xbox has a bad history of overlapping into the next gen)
----------------

=50 million

PS3: 65 mill
Wii: 130 mill

I'm curious about 2008 sales.  They're tracking 42% ahead of last year, right now, and last year MS sold 8 m 360s, which would suggest they will sell 12 m or so this year.  When do you believe 360 sales will drop so significantly that they will only achieve 9 m?

I'm not saying that sales won't drop, but I'm curious as to the reason you've determined. 

Huh? I thought it was 20% YoY according to VGchartz ... if you compare Jan-Apr '08 with '07 (but since I'm still afraid VGC is overtracking the X360 slightly, I rounded to 9 mill for the year).

 I'm bad at using the functions here aligning graphs and stuff... do you have evidence the X360 really is tracking ahead 42%?

EDIT:

05th Jan 2008 to 19th Apr 2008:

Total

2,250,173

06th Jan 2007 to 21st Apr 2007:

Total

1,610,702

So it's tracking 40% ahead YOY.

Okay, let's see.... if VGC is overtracking the X360 by 10% so far through the year, the 2.25 mill drops to 2.045 mill.

2.045 is 27% more than 1.610. But I believe this fall-Holiday sales will not have such a high rise compared to 2007's strong Holiday for MS. But 10 mill is reachable for the whole year (a 25% increase) thanks to GTA4 and the soon-to-be-come (?) NA price drop.

If I adjust my original lifetime X360 sales table to that, we get:

2008: 10 mill
2009: 10 mill
2010: 8.5 mill
2011: 6.5 mill
2012: 2 mill

-------------------

= 53 mill*

(Note: but if VGC is not overtracking the X360 by 10% as I believe, we'll land at lifetime 57 mill)