Prediction: Splatoon – 1 Million Worldwide by end of May 2015

[johnlucas]

potato_hamster said:

johnlucas said:

So it seems some posters in here think that U.K.'s the only European territory.
It ALSO seems that some posters in here haven't even waited for an official account of all territories before trying to shut down my prediction.

Splatoon opened big around the world & when the numbers are tallied worldwide digital & physical, THAT will be the final word.
That means ALL of Europe (not just UK), Japan, AND the Americas.

Remember, you have no idea of the digital sales of this game until Nintendo announces them.
If Splatoon got that close to The Witcher 3 in the United Kingdom, you can damn well bet a similar effect happened in the United States.

Splatoon lived up to what Nintendo expected of it.
They rooted Wii U's worldwide summer on that one game alone...and it worked.
And it will have humongous legs. AND it will sell Wii U's.
Splatoon has just become Nintendo's next monster franchise just like I suspected at E3 2014.

I await Nintendo's report.
John Lucas

So so far, we have the sales numbers representing about 30%-35% of wii U hardware sales so far, and we're at about 180k. Giving generous digital sales estimates, that would bring us to 200K max based on retail numbers. We might not be able to get exact digital numbers yet, but we know how much digital sales tend to be compared to retail counterparts, and it tends to be between 5 and 10% even for Nintendo consoles. You said yourself that Splatoon was going to sell consoles so software sales should be higher than thr 150K of pre-orders you insisted existed in Japan. As it turns out, it sold less than the number of pre-orders you predicted, and never sold out across Japan.

Let's try to be a bit realistic, and base Splatoon's sales trends off of Mario Kart 8's sales trends. This is how Mario Kart 8 has done:

NA: 2.01M, EUR 1.23M, JPN: 0.95M, ROW: 0.28M

Based on these Wii U software sales trends, and being generous with digital numbers, let's assume that Japan has 190K in first week sales (not first 4 days). That would mean:

North America would sell: 423K

Europe would sell: 246K

Rest of the world would sell: 56K

For a total of:  915K. 85K short of your prediction, and that's 7 days, not 4.

That's really a best case scenario. We're not even sure if Nintendo distrubuted enough copies world-wide to make the 1M even reachable, but the game has sold out nowhere. so you can't blame that as a factor.

Face it. Splatoon did not sell 1M copies in its first 4 days. It flat out did not happen. You're in denial at this point if you think official numbers are going to outperform realistic projections by 20%.

The game has sold out nowhere??? Really???

Splatoon Sold Out In Japan At Launch

And who predicted pre-orders? I never said anything about pre-orders in my prediction.
You're confusing something else someone else said in this thread's discussion with my prediction.

My prediction was very simple with no ambiguity whatsoever.

1 million sales worldwide both digital AND physical combined before June 1st.

I RESPONDED to someone else talking about preorders LATER in the discussion but my prediction had nothing to do with preorders or not.
A sale is a sale I don't care where it comes from.

And try comparing Mario Kart 8 with its May 2014 sales.
You're basing it off of lifetime totals so far.
Compare the breakdown per region from its May 2014 totals.
Which means its opening days before June 2014.

The truth is while your rule of thumb for predicting market breakdowns can be handy, it's not foolproof.
Splatoon's breakdown might differ from Mario Kart's.
They might do stronger in certain territories than Mario Kart 8 did.

Mario Kart while an iconic franchise is expected.
Splatoon is FRESH (ha!) and new & its appeal might draw audiences in ways Mario Kart cannot.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It was just a quick throwaway prediction.
But let's wait until the final tally comes in before trying to shoo away my foretelling.

It won't be egg on my face if it sells 900 thousand instead of 1 million.
Close enough. Hahahaha.

Either way you count it, it's a smash hit.
John Lucas