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At a 10-20$ pricetag for the game at release (the pricerange I've heard a couple of times, dunno if it's the true pricerange), a physical copy might be too expensive to justify physical copies.

What Nintendo should do however would be compilations of eShop titles with a common theme (like a genre or a graphical style) with a price equivalent of roughly 60$. This would both give the Indies much more exposure and help Nintendo getting over droughts on the retail market.