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So it appears that Splatoon did... 145K First Week in Japan (retail), which appears to be less than the preorders you mentioned. So combined between Japan and the UK we're looking at 170K (approximately). Assuming 20% online sales (which is generous), this puts Splatoon sales at around 200K. So essentially the rest of Europe, and North America would have to have approximately 800K in sales in the first week?

It appears you will have some words to eat, but I'm sure you'll spin it to make it look like it's not Nintendo's fault.